State College, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

427
FXUS61 KCTP 182327
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
727 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* The Wind Advisory has been expanded into Clearfield and Blair
  counties and extended through 7 PM.
* The threat for strong thunderstorms today has greatly
  diminished.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Windy conditions expected today, with highest wind gusts
across the Laurels where a Wind Advisory remains in effect.

2) After dry weather for Friday and the weekend, rain returns to
the forecast for Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Windy conditions expected today, with highest
wind gusts across the Laurels where a Wind Advisory remains in
effect.

Anomalously strong surface low pressure tracking into southern
Quebec will result in a windy afternoon (especially by June
standards with near-record low MSLP to our north). Recent
forecast outlines widespread maximum wind gusts between 35-45
mph this afternoon, and gusts up to 50 mph possible in the
Laurels. Given recent upstream obs, we expanded the Wind
Advisory into Clearfield and Blair counties, and extended the
advisory in time through 7 PM this evening.

In terms of convection, the threat for strong storms has greatly
diminished thanks to unimpressive midlevel lapse rates, low
level dry air advection/mixing down of dry air, and the best
forcing now moving up into New England. However, scattered
showers are possible in the northern tier as the cold front
approaches this afternoon and evening.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Key Message 2: After dry weather for Friday and the weekend,
rain returns to the forecast for Monday.

Following the passage of the cold front this evening, the
remnants of TC Arthur will meet up with the frontal system to
our south late tonight into early Friday morning. The northern
periphery of this disturbance could produce a few hundredths of
an inch of rain in the Lower Susq valley, ending by 10 AM
Friday.

Fri and Sat will remain breezy but not as windy as Thu. Winds
will be from the west with gusts 20-30 mph. With troughing
aloft, expect temps to be just a few degrees below avg and lots
of diurnal cumulus, but dry low levels should prevent anything
more than a stray sprinkle from making it to the ground.

The next chance for more widespread rainfall will come on Sunday
night and Monday as a wave of low pressure rides along a
lifting warm front. Latest model consensus is for 1.00-1.50" of
rain with this system before trending drier towards the middle
of the week. However, given the relatively small size of this
disturbance, we`ll have to keep a close eye on bust potential if
the track changes and brings the heaviest rain elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With the cold front now pushing off to the east the threat of
precipitation and restrictions associated with it have
diminished to near zero. Winds are remaining gusty between
20-30kts, but they are expected to somewhat slacken overnight
after 03Z. Gusts during the overnight period tonight will
decrease to between 15-20kts. These winds will increase again on
Friday after 12Z with day time heating aiding the enhancement
of low level winds. It should not be as gusty as it was on
Thursday, but still anticipate gusts up to 30kts.

Outside of winds, conditions will be mainly dry with high
confidence (~80%). An isolated rain shower is possible near MDT
and LNS during the early morning hours between 06Z and 14Z
Friday, but probabilities remain less than 20% for any
precipitation to occur. BFD could see a brief period of MVFR
ceilings tonight; however, everywhere else should remain VFR
through the 00Z TAF period.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...VFR with no significant weather.

Sun...Showers and thunderstorms developing in the
afternoon/evening across the far west.

Mon...Restrictions possible with widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

Tue...Lower chances of showers, mainly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Beaty
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Beaty
AVIATION...Bowen