State College, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

190
FXUS61 KCTP 190706
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
306 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Bumped PoPs up to categorical (80-100pct) for most of the CWA
  on Friday afternoon.
* Confidence rising in timing of frontal passage and related
  precip on Sunday and Sunday night along with refinement of
  QPF.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures start a steady climb today with a couple of
showers today and a widespread light to moderate rain on
Friday.

2) Cold frontal passage Sunday should make widespread rain
showers perhaps ending as a brief period of snow across the
north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures start a steady climb today with a
couple of showers today and a widespread light to moderate rain
on Friday.

Despite a cloudy day, the warm advection and warmer start to the
day vs Wed, we should add 8-10F to maxes today vs Wed. The warm
front pushing across early this morning will be followed very
shortly by a very weak/moisture-starved shortwave trough with
the slightest of a surface reflection. As the trough at the sfc
passes this aftn, we will see one or two SHRA develop to our
west and push into the Alleghenies. Most models make a few dots
of QPF <0.02". Higher chc (30%) of getting wet will go to the
Laurels.

Next wave is a Clipper system with a sfc low that crosses LM
and LE, then thru the Finger Lakes. There is more moisture
carried along by the system and it may actually tap a little
Gulf moisture as it reaches our longitude. Consensus QPF is
around 0.50" in the nrn tier and <0.25" in the Lower Susq and
south-central mountains. The SHRA should arrive in BFD around
or just before noon (when temps will be 35-40F), and 4 PM in
JST-UNV-IPT. They should continue southward and be off into MD
around 10-11 PM. A rumble of thunder is not out of the question
over the west as they pass thru. Maxes will end up another 10F
milder than the previous day (49-63F across the CWA fm N to S).

            --------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold frontal passage Sunday should make
widespread rain showers perhaps ending as a brief period of
snow across the north.

990mb sfc low over ND Sat evening will ride quickly to the east.
The sfc low is progged by most models to be somewhere near BUF
Sun evening. The warm advection precip looks like it will pass
mainly north of PA for Sunday daytime. A little -RA may brush
the far nrn tier during the daylight hours. More certainty
exists in the passage of the connected cold front on Sunday
night.

QPF Sun night actually looks very similar to Friday`s amounts.
Much of the precip will fall along and behind the front. The
cold air being forced in from the N and the rainfall will
quickly drop temps Sun night. Despite maxes in the upper 50s in
the N (they`ll be near 70 for the srn half of the CWA) on
Sunday, the cooling will probably (50%) turn the rain to SN over
the nrn mtns. If it does turn to SN there, it shouldn`t over
the central and srn two- thirds of the CWA due to the warmer
start when the rain arrives. Maybe a little mix could happen on
the top of the ridges of the central mtns. Mins will be 25-30F
in the N, but just above 40F along the MD border (lower elevs).
The precip will be S of the MD border around or just after
sunrise Mon.

Mon-Tue look dry with temps a little below normal. Wed should be
a few degs warmer than normal and Thu much warmer with lots of
places >=60F.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overcast skies tonight with light winds will be the story for
the beginning of this TAF package. Overall ceilings should
remain VFR with broken to overcast clouds between 5,000 and
10,000 ft. The usual spots of lower cloud heights are being
observed at BFD and JST. These two sites will largely remain
MVFR through today and into tonight. Occasional isolated
snowshowers off Lake Erie could cause additional restrictions at
BFD, but confidence in these impacts remains less than 50%.

Clouds will remain overcast throughout the day today thanks to
a weak passing warm front bringing just enough moisture to
prevent any scattering of the cloud deck. Persistent MVFR is
expected over western Pennsylvania, while elsewhere clouds
should remain borderline VFR near 4,000 ft. Conditions outside
of lake effect snow will remain dry through Friday.

Outlook...

Thu PM...Lingering MVFR ceilings north and west.
Fri..Mainly VFR.
Friday Night...Restrictions in rain showers.
Sat-Sun...Mainly VFR.
Sun Night - Mon...Cold front passage, restrictions in rain; some
wintry mix possible across the north.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Bowen